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Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Japanese Senate election on July 20 is expected to create significant uncertainty in the market, particularly regarding the Japanese yen and fiscal policy, as the ruling coalition may lose its majority [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Forex market option traders have resumed shorting the yen, with call options for USD/JPY trading volume more than double that of put options as of July 11 [2]. - As of July 8, asset management firms held a net long position of 89,331 contracts for USD/JPY, indicating strong bullish sentiment towards the dollar [2]. - There is increased interest in one-month call options for USD/JPY, coinciding with the election period, reflecting market expectations of heightened uncertainty [3]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns and Bond Yields - Concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook are leading to expectations that the election results may pave the way for additional fiscal stimulus, which is already being priced into Japanese government bonds [4]. - Long-term Japanese government bond yields are rising, with the 30-year yield increasing by 12.5 basis points to 3.165%, nearing a historical high of 3.185% [4][5]. - The 20-year bond yield also rose by 12.5 basis points to 2.625%, reaching its highest level since 2000, while the 40-year bond yield increased by 17 basis points to 3.495% [5]. Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing the Yen - The sentiment towards the yen has been deteriorating due to the lack of progress in US-Japan tariff negotiations and worsening fiscal prospects in Japan [5]. - Recent US non-farm payroll data has sparked interest among traders to go long on USD/JPY, as it has led to a reassessment of the timing for a slowdown in the US economy and a reduction in Fed rate cut expectations [5].