Core Viewpoint - The majority of respondents believe that the Chinese stock and foreign exchange markets will continue to show resilience in the third quarter, despite complex external and internal economic conditions [1][8]. Economic Growth Outlook - Over 80% of respondents expect the GDP growth rate for the second quarter to be no less than 5%, with 48.3% predicting a range of 5.0% to 5.2% [3][17]. - The overall economic performance in the first half of the year is viewed as stable, with 58.3% of economists indicating a moderate growth [3][17]. Monetary and Fiscal Policy - More than 60% of respondents rated the monetary policy in the second quarter as "loose" or "very loose," reflecting a positive evaluation of the measures taken [3][16]. - The fiscal policy received mixed reviews, with 43.3% considering it "moderate" and 35% believing it was insufficient [3][16]. Stock Market Performance - A significant 91.7% of respondents rated the stock market performance in the second quarter positively, indicating a growing consensus on the revaluation of Chinese assets [4][8]. - For the third quarter, 81.7% of respondents expressed a neutral to optimistic outlook on stock market conditions, a notable increase of 29.1 percentage points from the previous survey [8][22]. Consumer and Investment Sentiment - The consumer market is expected to remain stable, with 53.4% of respondents anticipating steady consumption, although 43.3% warned of potential declines in consumer momentum [5][18]. - In terms of investment, 43.3% of respondents expect private investment confidence to stabilize, marking an 18.7 percentage point increase from the last survey [7][18]. Real Estate Market Insights - 55% of respondents believe that the real estate market in first-tier cities is nearing a stabilization point, while over half expect a slight decline in sales heat in the third quarter [7][20]. - The overall sentiment towards the real estate market reflects concerns about cooling sales, with 51.7% predicting a small drop in sales activity [7][20]. Foreign Exchange and Capital Flow - Over 75% of respondents expect the RMB to USD exchange rate to remain between 7.0 and 7.2 in the third quarter, indicating a stable outlook for the currency [10][21]. - More than 45% of respondents anticipate a slight inflow of cross-border capital, reflecting a positive shift in sentiment regarding capital movement [10][22]. Trade and Economic Policy Recommendations - Respondents suggest enhancing policies to stimulate consumption, including expanding the "old-for-new" subsidy program and including service consumption in government subsidies [11][12]. - The urgency to develop a stable digital currency is highlighted, with 80.1% of respondents rating the need for a recognized RMB stablecoin as high [13].
二季度经济预期向好 中国资产配置价值持续提升丨时报经济眼
证券时报·2025-07-14 23:54