21社论丨中国外贸量稳质升，韧性凸显

Core Viewpoint - China's export growth remains resilient, supported by strong performance in emerging markets and stable trade relations with developed economies, despite challenges in labor-intensive product exports and fluctuating commodity prices [1][3][5]. Group 1: Export Performance - In June 2025, China's exports grew by 5.8% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 5.9% for the first half of the year [1]. - Key markets contributing to export resilience include Europe, ASEAN, and Africa, with exports to the EU growing by 7.6% year-on-year [1][3]. - Emerging markets, particularly ASEAN, saw double-digit growth in exports, with Vietnam and Thailand experiencing over 20% year-on-year increases [1][3]. Group 2: Import Dynamics - Imports in June 2025 recorded a slight year-on-year increase of 1.1%, while the cumulative import decline for the first half was 3.9% [1]. - The decline in imports is attributed to falling commodity prices and weak domestic manufacturing sentiment, with major commodities like soybeans and iron ore seeing price drops [2]. Group 3: Trade Structure and Diversification - The share of emerging markets in China's exports is increasing, with the U.S. share dropping to around 12%, while ASEAN and Latin America account for 17.8% and 7.8% respectively [3][4]. - China's trade diversification is further supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and RCEP, enhancing trade relations with new partners [4]. Group 4: Export Product Composition - High-value products such as semiconductors, transportation equipment, and machinery are driving export growth, while labor-intensive products face pressure due to U.S. tariff policies [2][5]. - The export structure is shifting towards high-end manufacturing, with significant growth in integrated circuits (24.2% year-on-year) and machinery [2][4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The combination of stable demand from emerging markets and strong bilateral trade relations with the EU is expected to bolster China's export resilience amid global trade uncertainties [5]. - The ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector towards high-end, intelligent, and green production is anticipated to enhance international competitiveness in exports [5].