年中资本风向

Group 1 - The article highlights a systemic transformation in China, driven by favorable policies and expectations of long-term capital entering the market, which is prompting a reassessment of the value of Chinese assets [1][4] - As of July 10, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index returned to 3500 points, with bank stocks, seen as the "economic beta," continuing to rise, exemplified by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China closing at 8.08 (+2.93%) with a monthly increase of over 14% [2] - Fidelity International's Asia-Pacific investor survey indicates that the average return for mainland Chinese investors in the first half of 2025 is projected at 4.3%, surpassing the 3.2% average for Asia-Pacific investors, with stocks, information technology, and energy being key investment areas [3] Group 2 - Recent policies have focused on expanding domestic demand, stabilizing real estate, addressing "involution," strengthening technology, and stabilizing foreign investment, as evidenced by multiple significant policy announcements [3][4] - The performance of large state-owned banks' H-shares has been notable, with increases ranging from 20% to 36% over the past six months, and current dividend yields between 4.6% and 5.7% [7] - The KBW Bank Index in the U.S. rose by 9.56% and the European Stoxx 600 Bank Index increased by 29% in the first half of the year, indicating a global resonance in bank stocks driven by macro policy shifts, interest margin logic, and long-term capital allocation preferences [8] Group 3 - The article discusses the need for strong demand-side policies to effectively translate price changes into market outcomes, emphasizing the interplay of policy, confidence, and demand [9][11] - The ongoing structural transformation in China aims to address "involution" through coordinated supply and demand efforts, enhancing resource allocation logic [13] - The current "involution" competition is concentrated in emerging industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, with significant differences from previous supply-side structural reforms [14][15]