特朗普VS鲍威尔，谁更“懂”美国经济 今晚CPI揭晓答案

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming US June CPI report is anticipated to be a critical indicator of inflation trends, particularly in relation to the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. A significant increase in CPI could validate the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates, while a lower-than-expected reading may provide ammunition for Trump to criticize Fed Chair Powell [2][3]. Group 1: CPI Data Expectations - The consensus among the Federal Reserve and private sector forecasters is that inflation will rise in the summer as companies pass on the costs of Trump’s tariffs to consumers. Previous measures to mitigate these costs are losing effectiveness [5]. - The median estimates for the June CPI report suggest a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May, and a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, compared to 0.1% in May [5][6]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, is expected to rise from 2.8% to 3% year-over-year, marking the highest level since January [6][7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Financial markets are on alert for the CPI report, with expectations that rising inflation could lead to a cautious stance from Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts. The next three months are deemed crucial for inflation data [9]. - A higher-than-expected CPI report could delay the Fed's rate cuts and potentially hinder the recent upward momentum in the US stock market [10]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the breadth of inflationary pressures in the goods sector, as this will influence reactions in the bond market and overall market sentiment [10][11].