最新调查！经济学家看好三季度股市汇市保持韧性，经贸谈判结果影响可控

Core Viewpoint - The survey indicates a cautiously optimistic outlook for China's economy in the second half of 2025, with a focus on stabilizing consumption and investment while navigating external uncertainties [2][5][11]. Economic Performance - Nearly 60% of respondents believe the economic performance in the first half of the year was stable and moderate, with GDP growth at 5.3% year-on-year [3][11]. - Over 61% of respondents rated the monetary policy in the second quarter as "loose" or "very loose," reflecting a positive assessment of the policy measures taken [3]. Consumption and Investment Outlook - The majority of respondents (53.4%) expect consumption to remain stable in the second half, but 43.3% warn of potential declines in consumption momentum [6]. - 43.3% of respondents are optimistic about private investment confidence stabilizing in the third quarter, an increase of 18.7 percentage points from the previous survey [7]. Real Estate Market - 55% of respondents believe the real estate market in first-tier cities is nearing a stabilization point, while over half (51.7%) expect a slight decline in overall sales heat in the third quarter [7]. Stock and Currency Markets - A significant majority (81.7%) of respondents rated the stock market's outlook for the third quarter positively, reflecting a growing confidence in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [8]. - Over 75% of respondents anticipate the RMB/USD exchange rate will remain between 7.0 and 7.2, with expectations of slight capital inflows [9]. Policy Recommendations - Respondents suggest enhancing the "old-for-new" consumption policy and expanding its scope to include service consumption, with 65% advocating for increased funding [10][11]. - There is a strong call (80.1%) for the development of a stable digital RMB, indicating a perceived urgency in establishing a recognized stablecoin market [12].