“番茄大战”再度上演！美国人还能实现“番茄自由”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced a 17.09% anti-dumping duty on most imported tomatoes from Mexico, which is expected to significantly impact tomato trade between the two countries, despite being lower than the previously threatened 21% tariff [1][9]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Tomato Market - The profit margin for U.S. fresh tomato traders typically ranges from 10% to 20%, making the 17% tariff a substantial cost that could severely compress profit margins, especially for small to medium-sized traders [1][2]. - The U.S. fresh tomato market is heavily reliant on imports, with 72% of the total supply in 2024 coming from imports, 90% of which is sourced from Mexico [5][6]. - The average per capita consumption of fresh tomatoes in the U.S. is 20.3 pounds (approximately 9.2 kg) in 2023, indicating a strong demand for tomatoes [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Pricing Effects - Due to geographical and cost advantages, Mexico can grow tomatoes year-round, while U.S. production is limited by factors such as land costs and extreme weather [6]. - The new tariffs are likely to lead to a supply shortage in the U.S. fresh tomato market, resulting in increased consumer prices [2][10]. - Estimates suggest that tomato prices in the U.S. could rise by approximately 10%, with demand potentially decreasing by 5% as a result of the tariffs [13]. Group 3: Reactions and Economic Implications - Various business groups, including the National Restaurant Association, have expressed concerns that terminating the tomato suspension agreement could have widespread economic impacts across agriculture, warehousing, logistics, and the food service industry [11][12]. - The Mexican tomato imports contribute to approximately 50,000 jobs in the U.S. and generate an economic benefit of $8.3 billion, including indirect effects [12]. - Some large food companies are opting to use domestically sourced tomatoes to avoid tariff pressures, while smaller businesses are facing greater challenges due to potential price increases [14][15]. Group 4: Potential Retaliation from Mexico - The Mexican government has strongly opposed the U.S. tariffs, labeling them as politically motivated and unfair, and has indicated a willingness to seek diplomatic solutions [16][20]. - Historical context shows that Mexico has previously implemented countermeasures against U.S. agricultural products, such as corn and pork, which could be revisited in response to the new tariffs [17][18].