最新居民存贷款数据，透露哪些信号？

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the recovery of credit and social financing in June, indicating a balanced effort from residents, enterprises, and the government, reflecting the effectiveness of monetary policy in supporting the real economy [1][4][5]. Group 1: Credit and Financing - In June, new credit increased by 2.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan, with a credit balance growth of 7.1% [1]. - The structure of household loans showed a "long-term dominance, short-term drag" characteristic, with a total of 1.17 trillion yuan in new household loans in the first half of the year, down 290 billion yuan year-on-year [6]. - Short-term loans decreased slightly, while medium- and long-term loans increased significantly, indicating a cautious recovery in consumer and housing demand [6][18]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Policies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy and other measures have effectively stimulated consumer credit recovery, with a notable increase in short-term consumer loans and credit card loans [5][19]. - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with the average interest rate for personal housing loans dropping to 3.1%, leading to a 17% month-on-month increase in housing transaction volume in major cities [5][19]. Group 3: Deposit Trends - In the first half of the year, total deposits increased by 17.94 trillion yuan, with a June balance of 320.17 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.3% year-on-year growth [8][10]. - The structure of deposits has shifted towards more liquid forms, with 83% of new household deposits being demand deposits, compared to 40%-70% in previous years [12][14]. - The increase in M1 and M2 money supply indicates a significant rise in liquidity, driven by the growth of demand deposits from both households and enterprises [13][15]. Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The macroeconomic policy is expected to focus on "expanding domestic demand" and "curbing involution," with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [19][20]. - Financial tools will be directed towards supporting key sectors such as agriculture, small and medium enterprises, and consumption to stimulate economic growth [20][21].