“房地产下半年政策值得期待”

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is showing signs of stabilization and recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by government efforts to halt the decline and promote a healthy market environment [1][3][9]. Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline by 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1][4]. - The sales revenue of new commercial housing fell by 5.5% year-on-year, also showing a substantial narrowing of the decline by 19.5 percentage points compared to last year [1][4]. - The transaction volume of second-hand housing has increased compared to the same period last year, indicating active trading [1]. Price Trends - In June 2025, the sales prices of new residential properties in first-tier cities experienced a month-on-month decline of 0.3%, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [7]. - The average sales price of second-hand residential properties in first-tier cities fell by 0.7% month-on-month in June, consistent with the previous month [14]. Market Dynamics - The new housing market is gradually stabilizing, with first-tier cities showing strong performance in new home transactions, such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou, which saw year-on-year increases of 11.9%, 42%, and nearly 17% respectively [5]. - The average sales area of new commercial housing in June was 10,536 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 49.38% [6]. - The inventory reduction efforts have been effective, with the unsold housing area decreasing by 479 million square meters by the end of June, marking four consecutive months of decline [6]. Policy Support - The government is expected to intensify efforts to stabilize the real estate market, with recent meetings emphasizing the need for stronger measures [9][11]. - Core cities have begun optimizing real estate policies, such as improving housing fund loan policies to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers [10]. Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a rise in transaction volume, but prices are under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 3.0% in first-tier cities from June last year [16][20]. - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is attributed to rising demand for housing upgrades and the need to sell existing homes [18][21]. - The overall transaction market for second-hand housing remains broad, with many provinces seeing transaction volumes surpassing those of new homes [20].