[安泰科]多晶硅周评- 成交订单增多 价格涨势趋稳 （2025年7月16日）

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in polysilicon prices is driven by improved transaction activity, but the fundamental support for these price increases remains weak, indicating a potential for short-term fluctuations rather than sustained growth [1][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon this week is between 40,000 to 49,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 41,700 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 12.4% [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 40,000 to 45,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 41,000 yuan per ton, marking a week-on-week increase of 15.2% [1]. - The overall transaction volume has significantly increased this week, with around six companies reaching new orders, indicating a notable improvement in market activity compared to the previous week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Currently, there are nine domestic polysilicon producers, with three gradually resuming production, which will have a limited impact on July's supply, expected to be around 105,000 tons, with a slight increase to approximately 110,000 tons in August [2]. - The downstream demand for polysilicon is expected to remain stable at around 110,000 tons per month, with no new inventory pressure in the market [2]. - The price difference for recycled materials is as high as 9,000 yuan per ton, but this is unlikely to be sustainable due to cost pressures and the potential shift towards more price-attractive resources by downstream silicon wafer companies [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Despite the recent price increases, the fundamental support for polysilicon prices is weak, and the market is expected to experience slight fluctuations in the short term [3]. - A significant price increase may occur if downstream silicon wafer companies are forced to reduce production due to high raw material costs and low downstream prices, which could improve the supply-demand relationship [3]. - The polysilicon market is anticipated to gradually return to rational development as supply contracts and downstream acceptance improves, alongside better market expectations [3].