美联储前高级经济学家胡捷：高利率的抑制作用开始显现

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy amidst ongoing uncertainties due to tariff policies, highlighting a slowdown in economic growth and mixed signals from various economic indicators [1][4]. Economic Growth and Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate for 2025 has been revised down from 2.2% to 1.6% by OECD, and from 1.8% to 1.5% by IMF for 2026 [1]. - Current expectations suggest a decline in U.S. economic growth to around 1.4% this year, primarily due to the waning effects of fiscal stimulus and the impact of high interest rates [1][5]. - The unemployment rate decreased slightly to 4.1% in June, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, surpassing expectations [5][6]. Labor Market Dynamics - Despite a robust unemployment rate, signs of weakness in the labor market are emerging, particularly in the slowdown of job growth in the private sector compared to the public sector [6]. - The labor market is influenced by the overall economic slowdown and structural adjustments within industries, indicating a gradual weakening trend [6]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, the highest since February, but the impact of tariffs on inflation is mitigated by falling global energy prices and the limited scope of tariff implementation [1][8]. - The decline in oil prices from around $80 to approximately $65 per barrel has significantly contributed to controlling inflation [8]. - The actual impact of tariffs is less than initially expected due to delays in implementation and lower-than-anticipated tariff rates [9][10]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, as inflation indicators are trending downward and economic growth is slowing [11][12]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the federal funds rate may eventually decrease to around 2% or lower, although this will be a gradual process [11]. Currency and Trade Dynamics - The recent decline in the U.S. dollar index is attributed to expectations of Fed rate cuts and a slowdown in global trade growth, which reduces demand for the dollar [13]. - Despite some supportive factors for the dollar, such as stable capital inflows, the prevailing negative factors are expected to dominate in the short term, leading to a continued weak and volatile dollar index [13].