特朗普深夜辟谣，美股涨、黄金涨，美债再破5%

Market Performance - On July 16, US stock indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.53%, Nasdaq up 0.25% reaching a new high, and S&P 500 up 0.32% [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks declined, with Baidu down over 7%, JD.com and Alibaba down over 1%, while Bilibili rose over 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.41% [1] - Chip stocks declined, with ASML down over 8% [1] - Energy stocks fell across the board, while stablecoin concept stocks surged [1] Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose by 0.52% to $3354.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 0.04% to $38.125 per ounce [2] Currency Market - The US dollar index fell by 0.23%, closing at 98.392, with a year-to-date decline of over 9% [3][4] US Treasury Bonds - On July 16, the 30-year US Treasury yield broke above 5%, while the 10-year yield approached 4.5%, marking four consecutive days of increases [7][8] - Traders significantly increased bearish bets on US Treasuries, with options betting on a rise in the 30-year yield to around 5.3% within five weeks, with total premiums reaching $10 million [8] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since February [12] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below expectations but higher than May's 2.8% [12] - Following the CPI report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in July rose to 97%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in September dropped to around 50% [12] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Factors such as tariffs may compress this year's fiscal deficit, and the US Treasury General Account (TGA) balance remains at $372.2 billion, seven times that of the same period in 2023 [14] - The US is not currently increasing the issuance of medium to long-term Treasuries [14] - Economic growth, oil prices, and Federal Reserve policies are relatively favorable, but if inflation exceeds expectations, the risk of simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency should be monitored [14]