Manus裁员、撤离，朱啸虎的预言成真了？！

Core Viewpoint - Manus, once a promising AI agent, has seen a drastic decline in active users and has decided to withdraw from the Chinese market, raising questions about the sustainability of AI agents in the face of dominant large models [2][3][28]. Group 1: Manus's Market Performance - Manus's monthly active users plummeted from approximately 20 million in March to about 10 million by May, indicating a significant loss of interest [13]. - The company experienced a rapid rise in popularity shortly after its launch, with a waiting list exceeding 2 million users within three days and a peak web traffic of 23.76 million [12][13]. - By July, Manus's website indicated it was no longer available in China, and the company had dissolved its local team, retaining only about 40 core technical staff to move to Singapore [15][16]. Group 2: Challenges Faced by Manus - The founder, Xiao Hong, has faced criticism for the company's rapid exit from China, despite previously expressing a strong commitment to the local market [17][28]. - Manus's technology has been criticized for its performance, with users reporting long wait times and poor task execution compared to competitors like OpenAI's products [25][26]. - The high operational costs associated with Manus's services have raised concerns about its pricing strategy, which is comparable to that of established players like OpenAI [26]. Group 3: Industry Context and Predictions - Industry expert Zhu Xiaohu predicts that large models will eventually dominate the AI agent market, potentially eliminating 90% of existing agents [2][34]. - Manus's reliance on large models for its functionality places it in a vulnerable position, as it is essentially a "plugin" dependent on the capabilities of these larger systems [31][35]. - The financial barrier to developing competitive AI models is significant, with estimates suggesting that the cost of developing leading models can reach hundreds of millions, while Manus's valuation is only around $500 million [35].