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Core Viewpoint - BlackRock maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market, anticipating a "bull market" in both stocks and bonds in the second half of 2025, driven by gradually warming policy expectations [2][3]. Economic Outlook - China's export data exceeded expectations in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in June, but pressures are expected to increase in the second half due to a weakening real estate market and softening consumption in the restaurant sector [3]. - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience, with companies demonstrating strong adaptability and product innovation. Positive changes in macro control and industry regulation since September last year have increased foreign investment interest in China [3]. - Policy expectations are anticipated to rise, particularly after September, with nominal interest rates having significantly decreased, yet real interest rates remain high. Monetary policy is expected to stabilize, with potential for increased support [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - In the current low-interest-rate environment, BlackRock favors a "bull market" in stocks over bonds, recommending a portfolio centered on equities, with government bonds serving as stabilizers and credit bonds maintained at a neutral level [3][4]. - Investment focus should be on three asset categories: high dividend and strong free cash flow stocks, broad consumption sectors like automotive and electronics benefiting from policy support, and traditional high-growth sectors such as AI and healthcare, which have long-term growth potential despite short-term profitability concerns [4]. A-Share Market Expectations - The emphasis on economic development by the government and the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption are expected to alleviate profit pressures on listed companies compared to last year, leading to an improved operating environment [7]. - The Hong Kong stock market presents opportunities in the Hang Seng Technology sector, which is currently reasonably valued, and in high-quality traditional enterprises that may see valuation increases if they report strong mid-year results [7]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing an "asset shortage," with extreme compression of term spreads and credit spreads, leading to high valuations and low yield levels [8]. - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support, which underpins the bond market's fundamentals. Despite high valuations, as long as the policy tone remains unchanged, the outlook for the bond market remains positive [8].