11家光伏公司预亏最高180亿，谁能最先“上岸”？

Core Viewpoint - The performance of photovoltaic listed companies has shown significant differentiation in the first half of the year, with expectations for recovery in the second half driven by capacity reduction efforts [1][6]. Group 1: Performance Overview - As of July 15, 11 photovoltaic companies in A-shares reported a total loss of 156.75-180.55 billion yuan for the first half of the year, with Longi, JA Solar, Tongwei, and TCL Zhonghuan accounting for a significant portion of these losses [1][2]. - Despite many companies still facing losses, the downstream battery and module sectors have seen improvements, with several companies reporting narrowed losses and even profitability, such as Hengdian East Magnetic and Aiko Solar [1][4]. Group 2: Reasons for Performance Differentiation - The primary reasons for the performance differentiation among photovoltaic companies include: 1. Upstream silicon material and wafer companies are struggling with oversupply and high inventory, leading to severe losses. As of June, polysilicon inventory reached 140 GW, four times the average monthly demand [7][10]. 2. Downstream battery and module companies, particularly integrated giants, have benefited from market recovery in volume and price, with Longi achieving a shipment of 40 GW, regaining its position as the global leader [7][8]. 3. New technologies and overseas market expansion have been key for battery and module companies to improve performance, with companies like Aiko and Hengdian East Magnetic seeing significant growth in overseas sales [8][9]. Group 3: Outlook for the Second Half - The most significant factor influencing the photovoltaic market in the second half is the capacity reduction process, with strong policy support expected to address the issue of overcapacity [10][11]. - The recent establishment of a "storage alliance" among several companies aims to acquire smaller polysilicon firms, which could stabilize the market and lead to price increases [11][12]. - Three categories of companies are expected to see performance rebounds in the second half: 1. Silicon material companies, particularly Tongwei and GCL, are likely to benefit first from price recovery due to their cost advantages [12][13]. 2. Companies with premium advantages in the BC industry chain, such as Aiko and Longi, are expected to improve profit margins as BC component penetration increases [13]. 3. Niche leaders in auxiliary industries and equipment manufacturers, such as Yujing Co. and Nanfang Glass, are also projected to perform well as the overall photovoltaic market improves [14].