碳酸锂：以法之名，书“卷”一梦

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has rebounded significantly, surpassing 70,000 yuan, with mainstream spot prices reaching 66,000 to 68,000 yuan, indicating a strong recovery in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures contract structure has changed, leading to a strong back structure and increasing the elasticity of lithium carbonate prices, which has fostered a rebound sentiment [1]. - Recent news regarding the re-approval of mining licenses for lithium mines in Jiangxi has sparked market interest, despite having minimal impact on production [2]. - Major domestic lithium carbonate companies have announced temporary halts in sales, further boosting market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Chile's lithium carbonate export volume has remained low for two consecutive months due to seasonal factors, while the downstream lithium battery market shows resilience [2]. - Australian lithium mine shipments have decreased by over 20% month-on-month, and domestic lithium mine inventories have declined since the end of June [2]. - The interference from the Malian government has affected the shipment of some Chinese-funded lithium mines, contributing to the tightening supply [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The production and sales growth of new energy vehicles in the first half of 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with the energy storage sector remaining robust despite low raw material prices [4]. - The domestic lithium carbonate market is anticipated to maintain a strong supply and demand dynamic in the second half of the year, with a gradual recovery in market sentiment [5]. - The "market bottom" is likely to appear before the second quarter of 2026, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the industry [5].