ESG行业洞察 | 碳成本大涨！欧盟CORSIA评估令航司面临新风险

Core Viewpoint - The European Union's assessment of CORSIA may significantly increase costs for airlines, particularly those operating long-haul flights from Europe, as the EU carbon pricing mechanism could be applied to these flights, resulting in carbon costs that are five times higher than those under CORSIA [3][4]. Group 1: Impact on Airlines - If the EU Commission recommends extending the EU carbon pricing mechanism to long-haul flights from Europe by July 2026, many airlines' carbon costs could rise dramatically, affecting major carriers like American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and others [4]. - European airlines such as Lufthansa, Air France, and British Airways may face greater impacts compared to low-cost carriers like easyJet and Ryanair, which operate fewer long-haul flights [4]. - The European Transport and Environment Federation is lobbying for the extension of the EU carbon pricing mechanism to all flights departing from Europe, arguing that CORSIA's carbon price is too low to meet EU climate goals [4]. Group 2: Carbon Pricing Comparison - The current price of EU carbon allowances is €75 per ton of CO2 equivalent, which is 20% higher than the UK's price of £52 per ton (approximately €63) and five times higher than CORSIA's futures price of $17 per ton (approximately €14.8) [6]. - The reduction of free allowances since 2021 has supported demand for EU carbon allowances, although approximately €120 million in free allowances were issued in 2024 [6]. - Unlike the EU and UK carbon trading systems, which charge for all emissions from internal flights, CORSIA only applies carbon offset costs to emissions exceeding pre-pandemic baseline levels, leading to criticism regarding its lack of ambition [6]. Group 3: IAG's Carbon Costs - IAG, which operates several airlines including British Airways and Iberia, faces significant carbon costs even with the current EU carbon pricing mechanism limited to internal flights, with annual carbon costs amounting to hundreds of millions of euros [10]. - In 2024, IAG received €153 million in free carbon allowances, totaling €1.06 billion since 2020, but these free allowances will gradually decrease by 2026 [10]. - IAG's carbon allowance expenditure in 2024 is projected to be €301 million, up from €212 million in 2023, with the company assuming a future EU carbon price of €120 per ton, which is 60% higher than the current price [10].