进入缄默期！美联储降息悬念或留待9月

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate adjustments in light of these developments [1][4][6]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest increase since January, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, influenced primarily by rising gasoline prices and housing costs [3]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat in June, but a 0.3% increase in goods costs suggests inflationary effects from tariffs, particularly in consumer electronics, furniture, and appliances [3][4]. - Market expectations indicate that the inflation effects from tariffs will become more pronounced in the CPI reports for July and August, as companies are still selling goods accumulated before the tariffs were announced [3][4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - The Federal Reserve aims to restore inflation to 2% or lower, but the highest tariff levels in decades complicate this goal, potentially leading to increased inflation depending on the magnitude and duration of the tariffs [4][5]. - Fed officials, including key members, express a preference to observe summer inflation data before making any rate cuts, with a current probability of a July rate cut at only 5.3% [7][8]. - Some Fed members suggest that the full impact of tariffs on prices may take time to materialize, indicating that any rate cuts are more likely to occur in response to economic or labor market fluctuations rather than inflation targets [9].