美联储，突发！鲍威尔，大消息！

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential consequences of President Trump's threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting the warnings from various officials about the risks to the economy and financial markets if such an action were taken [1][3][6]. Group 1: Warnings from Officials - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to fire Powell, citing possible negative reactions from financial markets and legal implications [3][5]. - Senator John Kennedy warned that firing Powell could lead to a stock market crash, emphasizing the importance of the Federal Reserve's independence [2][10]. - Former Treasury Secretary Summers expressed concerns that Trump's pressure for significant rate cuts could backfire, suggesting that the consequences of firing Powell would be severe [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Analysts believe that attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve could trigger a sell-off in U.S. assets, with significant implications for the dollar and U.S. government bonds [6][7]. - Deutsche Bank's forex strategist noted that Powell's dismissal is one of the biggest underestimated risks in the market, predicting a potential 3% to 4% drop in the dollar if such an event occurs [8]. - The article highlights that the perception of the Federal Reserve's independence is crucial for maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency, and any perceived loss of this independence could diminish the appeal of holding dollars [9]. Group 3: Economic Context - Mnuchin indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates twice before the end of the year, suggesting that there is no immediate need to dismiss Powell [3]. - Trump has previously criticized Powell and called for a 3% rate cut, which he claims could save the government $1 trillion over a year [3].