“黑天鹅”突袭，猛烈抛售！影响多大？

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese political landscape is facing significant turmoil, particularly with the upcoming Senate elections, which could lead to a loss of majority for the ruling coalition, impacting market stability and government policies [2][5][9]. Group 1: Japanese Political Situation - The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito is projected to secure fewer than 50 seats in the Senate elections, potentially losing its majority [2][6][7]. - Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government may resign if the coalition fails to maintain a majority, which could lead to a political deadlock and hinder legislative progress [9][11]. - The current approval rating for Ishiba's cabinet has dropped to 20.8%, below the critical threshold of 30%, indicating a precarious political situation [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The uncertainty surrounding the elections has led to a significant sell-off in the Japanese bond market, with the 30-year government bond yield reaching record levels [7][8]. - Analysts predict that if Ishiba resigns, the Japanese yen could breach the 149.7 mark against the dollar, reflecting market concerns [8]. - A potential victory for opposition parties could lead to significant policy changes, including tax reductions, which may further destabilize the financial markets [11][12]. Group 3: U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to address the market regarding the Fed's independence, which could influence the dollar's performance [3][15]. - Recent U.S. inflation data indicates a rise in core prices, complicating the Fed's decision-making regarding interest rates [17]. - The European Central Bank is also anticipated to maintain its current interest rates amidst ongoing trade tensions, which could affect the euro [19][20]. Group 4: Upcoming Earnings Reports - The upcoming earnings season will see over 100 S&P 500 companies reporting, with Google and Tesla being key focus points [21]. - Google's second-quarter revenue is expected to be $93.9 billion, reflecting an 11% year-over-year increase, driven by its dominance in digital advertising [22]. - Tesla's anticipated revenue of $22.83 billion represents a 10.46% decline year-over-year, with significant attention on its future guidance and developments in autonomous driving [23].