日本！突发黑天鹅

Core Viewpoint - The ruling coalition in Japan is likely to lose its majority in the upper house elections, which could further weaken Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's leadership and disrupt financial markets [3][5]. Political Impact - Exit polls indicate that the ruling coalition may secure only 32 to 51 seats out of 125 contested, falling short of the 50 seats needed to maintain a majority in the 248-seat upper house [5]. - Ishiba has stated he will continue as Prime Minister, believing the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) can still be the largest party in both houses [5]. - If the ruling coalition loses control of the upper house, it would mark the first time since the LDP's establishment in the 1950s that the government is in a minority in both houses [5][7]. Financial Market Implications - The election results could complicate Ishiba's policy agenda and U.S. trade negotiations, potentially leading to his resignation [7]. - Investor uncertainty may increase due to the ruling party's loss of majority, raising concerns about the ability of lawmakers to control fiscal spending, which has contributed to rising bond yields [8]. - The upcoming market reactions will be observed on the foreign exchange market, with the yen trading starting early on Monday [9]. Public Sentiment and Policy Challenges - Public dissatisfaction with rising prices has shifted votes towards opposition parties advocating for tax cuts and increased social welfare spending [9]. - The LDP's stance against lowering consumption tax contrasts with public demand, which may further weaken its position [9]. - The need for a trade agreement with the U.S. by August 1 adds pressure, as failure to do so could lead to increased tariffs on Japanese exports, negatively impacting GDP [10].