遭历史性惨败，日本执政联盟岌岌可危

Core Viewpoint - The ruling coalition of Japan, consisting of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito, has failed to secure a majority in the House of Councillors for the first time since the LDP's establishment in 1955, indicating a significant political shift in the country [1]. Group 1: Election Results and Political Implications - The LDP and Komeito coalition did not achieve a majority in the recent House of Councillors election, marking a historic defeat for the LDP [1]. - There is a rising demand within the LDP for Prime Minister Kishida to resign, led by former Prime Minister Aso Taro, indicating internal party strife and potential leadership changes [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that the loss of majority seats in both houses could force the government to compromise with opposition parties on legislative matters, increasing the likelihood of a leadership change [6]. Group 2: Public Sentiment and Future Governance - Public sentiment appears to favor a change in government, with 24.3% of voters supporting a regime change led by opposition parties, compared to only 18.4% supporting the continuation of the LDP-Komeito coalition [11]. - The dissatisfaction with the current administration is evident, as Prime Minister Kishida's approval rating has dropped to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office, with a significant increase in disapproval ratings [12]. Group 3: Economic and Market Reactions - Following the election results, there has been increased volatility in Japan's long-term bond market, with yields on 10-year bonds reaching their highest levels since 2008, reflecting market concerns over potential fiscal expansion [14]. - The anticipated increase in government spending could exacerbate Japan's already high public debt-to-GDP ratio, raising fears about the safety of Japanese government bonds, which were previously considered secure assets [15].