7月LPR继续“按兵不动”

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a stable monetary policy environment [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Context - The LPR remains unchanged amid a stable backdrop of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, indicating a cautious approach by the PBOC in response to the economic environment [2][4]. - The PBOC has emphasized the need for a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, as highlighted in their first-quarter monetary policy report [5]. Economic Indicators - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in the first half of the year were approximately 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, showing a decrease of about 45 and 60 basis points compared to the same period last year [7]. - Recent data on fixed asset investment and the real estate market have fallen short of market expectations, indicating that the economic foundation requires strengthening [7]. Future Outlook - There is a consensus among market institutions that there is potential for further downward adjustments in the LPR in the second half of the year, particularly if external economic pressures increase [2][6]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC may consider lowering the LPR to reduce financing costs for the real economy, especially in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - The focus may shift from merely lowering loan rates to reducing overall financing costs, including non-interest expenses, to better support economic activity [8].