按兵不动！LPR，最新公告！

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, reflecting a stable monetary policy environment amid economic recovery concerns [2][3]. Group 1: Economic Context - The second quarter economic performance was generally positive, reducing the urgency for further monetary easing in the near term [2]. - However, if external and internal challenges impact the annual economic growth target, the PBOC may implement more aggressive monetary easing measures later in the year [2][6]. - The current low levels of interest rates necessitate careful consideration of various factors for future rate movements, with new corporate loans averaging 3.3% and personal housing loans at 3.1%, both significantly lower than the previous year [5][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The LPR's stability indicates that the 20 banks setting the LPR have collectively decided against adjusting the LPR spread, reflecting ongoing pressure on banks' net interest margins [3][4]. - The PBOC is in a policy observation phase, assessing the effectiveness of previously implemented monetary policies before making further adjustments [3][6]. - Analysts suggest that there is potential for LPR to decrease further in the second half of the year, driven by the need to lower financing costs for the real economy [6][7]. Group 3: Future Expectations - There is a possibility of a downward adjustment in the 5-year LPR to alleviate mortgage burdens and stimulate housing demand [7]. - The anticipated easing of global liquidity, particularly if the Federal Reserve lowers rates, could provide additional room for the PBOC to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy [6]. - The focus may shift from merely reducing loan costs to addressing overall financing costs in the economy, emphasizing the importance of non-interest cost reductions [6].