农商行为何爱买债

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing bond investment by rural commercial banks (农商行) in China amidst a trend of "asset scarcity," highlighting their role as a significant player in the bond market and the implications of their investment strategies [2][3][10]. Group 1: Bond Investment Trends - Rural commercial banks are increasingly investing in bonds due to limited financial investment options and the need to achieve asset allocation KPIs, with a notable preference for long-term government bonds in 2024 [2][4]. - The bond holding ratio for rural commercial banks generally ranges from 20% to 35%, with some banks like Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank exceeding 30% [4][5]. - The inclusion of interbank certificates of deposit in bond calculations significantly raises the bond holding ratios for some banks, such as Hainan Rural Commercial Bank at 40.35% [5]. Group 2: Investment Limitations and Market Conditions - Rural commercial banks face constraints in diversifying their investment portfolios beyond bonds, with limited options for equity investments and asset-backed securities (ABS) [7][8]. - The current market environment poses challenges for increasing lending to the real economy, making bond investments a more viable option for maintaining stability [8][10]. - Regulatory differences across regions affect the investment behaviors of rural commercial banks, with some banks restricted to investing only in certain types of bonds [8]. Group 3: Impact of Regulatory Changes - The People's Bank of China has indicated a neutral to accommodative stance on bond investments by rural commercial banks, emphasizing their stabilizing role in the bond market [10][12]. - If bond investment ratios are reduced significantly, it could lead to substantial reductions in bond holdings, with estimates suggesting a potential decrease of up to 12,708 billion yuan if ratios fall below 15% [12]. - The average bond investment ratio among rural commercial banks has increased from 20% in 2022 to 22% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher bond investments despite potential regulatory pressures [12].