券商中国·2025-07-21 14:53Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq Composite Index has reached a historic milestone by surpassing 21,000 points, driven by strong earnings reports from major tech companies and optimistic market sentiment regarding future growth [2][4]. Financial Performance - Over 85% of the 62 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far have exceeded expectations, indicating robust performance in the current earnings season [3][15]. - The "Big Seven" tech companies are expected to see a 14% year-over-year increase in earnings, while the remaining 493 S&P 500 companies are projected to have an average growth of only 3.4% [16]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the S&P 500 index could rise to 6,900 points in the next 12 months, supported by strong earnings and investor optimism about growth in 2026 [3][17]. Market Trends - Major tech stocks, including Google, Apple, and Meta, have shown significant gains, contributing to the overall strength of the market [7]. - The financial technology company Block's stock surged over 7% after being announced as a new addition to the S&P 500 index [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that if inflation data is low, the Federal Reserve should consider lowering interest rates, which could positively impact the mortgage market [9]. - A weaker dollar has been identified as a favorable factor for the earnings growth of U.S. companies, with a 10% decline in the dollar potentially leading to a 2-3% increase in S&P 500 earnings per share [20]. Investor Sentiment - Despite concerns regarding trade policies, investors appear to be focusing on the long-term growth prospects for 2026 rather than short-term economic challenges [19][23]. - There is a general expectation among investors that the final tariff rates proposed by the Trump administration may be lower than currently suggested, which could further support market confidence [24].