7月LPR又是“按兵不动”，下半年还会下调吗？

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged at 3.00% for one year and 3.50% for five years, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid stable economic conditions and external uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: LPR and Monetary Policy - The LPR has remained stable for two consecutive months after a reduction of 10 basis points in May, reflecting a period of observation for the effects of previous monetary easing measures [1][2]. - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged 7-day reverse repurchase rate, which has become the new pricing anchor for LPR [2][4]. - The commercial banks are currently facing low net interest margins, which diminishes their motivation to lower the LPR further [2][5]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth in Q2 was 5.2% year-on-year, contributing to a cumulative growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, which supports the stability of monetary policy [2][6]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in the first half of the year was approximately 3.3%, down about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the average rate for new personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down about 60 basis points [6][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that there is still potential for LPR adjustments in the second half of the year, particularly if external economic conditions remain uncertain and domestic demand needs to be stimulated [9][10]. - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts and LPR adjustments is anticipated towards the end of Q3 or Q4, as the PBOC aims to balance supporting the real economy while maintaining the health of the banking system [11][12].