券商中国·2025-07-22 04:18Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, once a "core asset," has underperformed in the recent bullish market, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 10% as of July 21, 2023 [1][3]. Fund Manager Operations - Fund managers have varied strategies regarding liquor stocks; some have reduced their positions in response to "new consumption" trends, while others have increased their holdings [2][4]. - The China Securities Liquor Index has dropped approximately 10.5% year-to-date, with only two stocks, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, showing slight gains, while others like Wuliangye and Water Well Workshop have fallen over 20% [3]. - Despite the downturn, retail investors have actively bought into the sector, with the market share of the China Securities Liquor Fund increasing from 51.3 billion to 55 billion shares in the second quarter, a rise of 3.7 billion shares [3]. Valuation and Dividend Potential - The liquor sector's valuation has significantly decreased from its peak, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at 18.31, placing it in the bottom 3.13% of the past five years, indicating a "floor price" [7]. - The average dividend yield for the index is approximately 3.9%, reaching the 90th percentile over the last five years, suggesting potential for becoming a "dividend stock" [7]. Investment Outlook - Some fund managers believe that the current valuations reflect expectations of future profit declines, making the sector attractive for long-term investors due to low valuations and substantial shareholder returns [8]. - There is a consensus that the key to breaking the negative cycle in the industry is to proactively adjust inventory and support channels and consumers, which could lay the groundwork for market recovery [8][9]. - Despite short-term demand pressures, the long-term commercial attributes and competitive advantages of leading liquor brands remain strong, with dividend yields exceeding 4%, enhancing their appeal as quality dividend assets [9].