天天基金网·2025-07-22 06:28Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector, once a "core asset," has underperformed in the recent bullish market, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 10% as of July 21, 2023 [1][3]. Fund Manager Actions - Fund managers have varied in their approach to liquor stocks; some have reduced their positions in response to "new consumption" trends, while others have increased their holdings [2][3]. - The China Securities Liquor Index has dropped approximately 10.5% year-to-date, with only two stocks, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao, showing slight gains, while others like Wuliangye and Water Well Workshop have fallen over 20% [3]. - Despite the downturn, retail investors have actively bought into the sector, with the market share of the China Securities Liquor Fund increasing from 51.3 billion to 55 billion shares in the second quarter, a rise of 3.7 billion shares [3]. Valuation and Dividend Potential - The liquor sector's valuation has significantly decreased, with the current price-to-earnings ratio at 18.31, marking a 3.13% percentile over the past five years, indicating a potential "floor price" [5]. - The average dividend yield for the index is approximately 3.9%, reaching the 90th percentile over the last five years, suggesting the sector's potential to become a "dividend stock" [5]. Long-term Investment Perspective - Fund managers believe that the current valuations reflect expectations of future profit declines, making the sector attractive for long-term investors due to low valuations and substantial shareholder returns [6]. - Despite short-term demand pressures, the long-term commercial attributes and competitive advantages of leading liquor brands are expected to provide value, with current dividend yields exceeding 4% [7].