第一财经·2025-07-22 07:06Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the urgent need for capacity reduction in the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the disparity between market expectations and actual performance, as well as the necessity for effective policy implementation to facilitate this process [2][4][10]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The PV industry is experiencing a significant price surge, particularly in the silicon material and silicon wafer markets, with prices increasing over 10% within a week, and N-type G10L monocrystalline silicon wafers seeing a rise of over 22% [2][3]. - Despite the price increases, the fundamental support for these prices remains weak, with the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicating that the supply-demand situation has not materially improved [3][4]. - The PV sector has reported widespread losses in the first half of the year, with only a few companies showing signs of reduced losses or profitability, indicating a stark contrast between market speculation and actual financial performance [4][5]. Group 2: Company Performance - Companies like Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have managed to reduce their losses in the second quarter, suggesting some positive operational adjustments, with Longi Green Energy expecting a loss of 2.4 to 2.8 billion yuan for the first half of the year, but a reduction in losses in the second quarter compared to the first [5][6]. - The article notes that the industry needs to see convincing data on production cuts to validate market expectations and improve the overall supply-demand balance [5][9]. Group 3: Capacity Reduction and Policy Implications - Effective capacity reduction is critical, with the article outlining three key indicators: the effective reduction of silicon material inventory, maintaining low operating rates among companies, and the permanent exit of inefficient production capacities [6][7][9]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's recent directives are seen as timely, as the PV industry has faced continuous losses for seven consecutive quarters, indicating a pressing need for self-correction within the industry [8][10]. - The article concludes that the success of the PV industry's recovery hinges on the commitment to production cuts and the elimination of outdated capacities, which will ultimately determine the industry's ability to thrive in the global green energy revolution [9][10].