日美关税谈判：“变弱”的石破与“不急”的特朗普

Core Viewpoint - The negotiations between Japan and the U.S. are facing challenges due to the weakened political position of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe following the recent Senate election losses, which may lead to a tougher stance from the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Japan's Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy, Akizawa, is in Washington for the 8th round of ministerial talks, but the U.S. is showing a lack of urgency to reach an agreement [1][3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that the priority is to achieve a "high-quality agreement" rather than rushing to finalize a deal [3]. - The Trump administration's assessment of Abe's weakened position may influence their negotiation strategy, potentially leading to a more hardline approach [4]. Group 2: Japan's Position and Strategy - Japan is under pressure to make concessions if it seeks to expedite negotiations, with Abe advocating for investment over tariffs as a means to negotiate [5]. - The U.S. demands market openness and a reduction in trade deficits, which contrasts with Japan's focus on tariff adjustments and investment commitments [5]. - Japan's willingness to lower tariffs on agricultural products and accept more U.S. agricultural imports could be key to persuading the Trump administration [5]. Group 3: External Influences - The outcomes of negotiations with other countries, such as India, may impact Japan's negotiations, as India has temporarily withdrawn its negotiation team [5]. - If the U.S. does not achieve significant results before the August 1 deadline, Trump may unexpectedly accept Japan's previous proposals to declare a victory [6].