A股创年内新高！机构喊出“牛市新起点”

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching its highest point since October 2024, driven by policy support, structural changes in industries, and ample liquidity in the market [1][5][14]. Market Performance - As of July 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.62% to 3581.86 points, with trading volume reaching 1.93 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous day's 1.73 trillion yuan [1]. - Year-to-date, there have only been three trading days with A-share transaction amounts below 1 trillion yuan, and since July, daily trading has consistently exceeded 1.2 trillion yuan [1]. - The margin trading balance reached a three-month high of 1.92 trillion yuan, accounting for 2.25% of the A-share market's circulating market value, with an increase over 12 consecutive trading days [1]. Investor Sentiment - Optimism is spreading among investors, with some institutions declaring the start of a new bull market, predicting that the index may surpass 3700 points in the latter half of the year [1][14]. - However, some market participants caution that the 3500-point level is not a definitive indicator of a bull market, citing global economic pressures and external factors that could disrupt the A-share market [2][13]. Economic Indicators - The macroeconomic environment shows signs of improvement, with June's new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan and new social financing at 4.2 trillion yuan, both exceeding market expectations [6]. - The second quarter GDP growth was reported at 5.2% year-on-year, supporting the annual growth target [7]. Sector Performance - There is a noticeable divergence in sector performance, with water conservancy and hydropower sectors showing high growth due to government funding, while previously strong sectors like banking and brokerage are weakening [9][10]. - The technology sector, particularly in areas like semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, continues to perform well, with significant increases in relevant indices [9]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue experiencing structural opportunities, driven by ongoing policy support and economic recovery [14][15]. - Investors are advised to remain cautiously optimistic, focusing on balanced portfolio management and being aware of potential market corrections due to overheating [10][15].