【商用车】2025年6月轻型商用车市场预测研究报告

Industry Insights - XCMG launched the new generation of its light truck brand "HanJie" on May 27, focusing on improving logistics efficiency through technological innovations, with cargo box length increased from 4.2 meters to 4.4 meters [2] Product Analysis - The small truck market has shown an overall declining trend from 2019 to 2023, with a significant drop of 8.1% expected in 2024, and a further decline of 1.4 percentage points in the first five months of 2025 [4][6] - Market share for small trucks rose from 23% in 2019 to 33.1% in 2023, but is projected to decrease to 30.6% by May 2025 due to the recovery of the light truck market [7] - Sales of fuel and natural gas small trucks are declining, while the sales of new energy small trucks are increasing rapidly, although growth has slowed down in early 2025 [9] - Sales are concentrated in five provinces: Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Guangdong, and Sichuan, with Guangdong leading at 9,229 units sold in early 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [12] Market Strategy Recommendations - Traditional companies should maintain their presence in traditional energy markets while actively transitioning to new energy vehicles, as the shift towards electrification in commercial vehicles is inevitable [15] Sales Forecast - The light commercial vehicle market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with a projected total sales volume of 2.81 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.1% [21]