“8个月后下台”！特朗普再轰鲍威尔

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizing the potential political pressures on the Fed and the implications for monetary policy and market stability [1][2][5]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism and Fed's Future - Trump publicly criticized Powell, stating that the Fed should lower interest rates by at least 3 percentage points, suggesting a target below 1% [2]. - Powell's term as Fed Chairman is set to last until May next year, with Trump indicating that Powell will leave office in about eight months [2]. - A fake resignation letter attributed to Powell circulated on social media, causing temporary market fluctuations despite being debunked [4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Fed Independence - Concerns about the Fed's independence are rising, prompting some institutions to adjust their bond duration strategies [5][6]. - Deutsche Bank's strategist noted that if the Fed faces more political interference, a steepening yield curve trade could be a targeted hedge [6]. - The spread between 5-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury yields has widened to nearly 100 basis points, the highest since 2021, indicating market expectations for rising long-term rates [7]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Projections - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a 56% probability of a rate cut indicated by the interest rate swap market [7]. - The article highlights that if the current trend of decoupling expectations from interest rates continues, the Fed may become more cautious in its policy decisions [7]. - The upcoming August 1 tariff negotiation deadline set by Trump is viewed as a critical event that could further complicate market assessments of monetary policy [8].