券商中国·2025-07-22 15:24Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is committed to discussing the current state and future direction of the U.S. banking capital framework, emphasizing the importance of its independence in monetary policy [2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Statements - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the need for large banks to maintain adequate capital and manage risks while competing with non-bank financial companies and banks from other jurisdictions [6]. - Powell stated that the capital framework includes risk-based capital requirements, leverage ratio requirements, additional fees for the largest and most complex banks, and stress tests, which will be comprehensively discussed [8]. - Vice Chairman Michelle Bowman stressed the importance of the Fed's independence and the obligation to maintain transparency and accountability in monetary policy decisions [10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Market concerns about the Fed's independence were alleviated following Powell's statements, with U.S. stock indices showing mixed results; the Nasdaq initially dropped over 1% but later narrowed its losses to 0.44% [4]. - Chinese assets performed strongly, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 1.3% and the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF increasing by over 3% [4]. - Notable gains were observed in Chinese concept stocks, including a 16% rise in Daqo New Energy and over 9% in NIO [4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Expectations - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of a Fed rate cut next week is nearly zero, with traders pricing in a total of 46 basis points of cuts for the remainder of the year [9]. - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in September is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [9]. Group 4: Political Pressures - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin called for an internal review of the Fed but expressed confidence in Powell's leadership, stating there is no reason for him to resign [3][11]. - Concerns were raised regarding potential political pressures on Powell, particularly related to the Fed's renovation budget overruns, with speculation about his possible dismissal by President Trump [15][16].