倒戈？特朗普核心大将公开唱反调，罕见妥协

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results with the S&P 500 reaching a new high, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.4% and the Nasdaq decreased by 0.39% [1] - Major tech stocks had varied performances, with Tesla rising over 1% and Nvidia falling over 2% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.7%, with notable gains in Chinese concept stocks such as NIO increasing over 10% and Baidu rising over 4% [1] Federal Reserve Insights - Jerome Powell emphasized the need for large U.S. banks to maintain capital adequacy and manage risks, allowing them to compete freely with non-bank financial companies [1] - Powell's comments did not include any insights on future monetary policy as the Federal Reserve enters a quiet period ahead of the upcoming meeting [1] Interest Rate Speculations - The swap market indicates that the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week is nearly zero, with traders pricing in a total of 46 basis points of cuts for the remainder of the year [2] - The probability of maintaining the current interest rate in September is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [2] Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - Former President Trump has repeatedly attempted to pressure Powell to resign, while Treasury Secretary Mnuchin supports Powell's continued tenure [3] - Trump has expressed that interest rates are too high, suggesting they should be lowered by 3 percentage points or more, attributing housing market issues to Powell's policies [4] - Mnuchin called for a comprehensive internal review of the Federal Reserve's functions, indicating a need for the institution to refocus on its core responsibilities [4]