刚刚，金价再次突然拉升

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is a systematic response to global macroeconomic uncertainties rather than a short-term fluctuation, driven by factors such as trade rule ambiguity and a weakening of the dollar's dominance [5][9][14]. Group 1: Gold Price Dynamics - As of July 22, 2023, spot gold prices reached $3425.75 per ounce, marking a 0.86% increase, while COMEX futures rose nearly 1% to $3439 per ounce [1][2]. - The price increase is attributed to expectations of failed trade negotiations between the US and Europe, alongside a broader disappointment with the dollar's dominant order [5][6]. - The demand for gold is shifting from being a commodity to a form of institutional protection, reflecting a change in its pricing logic [10][14]. Group 2: Central Bank Behavior - Central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings, with a notable rise in demand from countries like China, Turkey, Poland, and India [10][11]. - The global central bank gold purchasing trend has significantly outpaced overall demand growth, with central bank purchases increasing by 621.7 tons compared to a total demand increase of 115.2 tons [10][11]. - The current low levels of gold reserves in emerging market central banks indicate substantial room for future increases in gold holdings [11]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $3700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4000 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by structural demand from central banks [13]. - The ongoing decline in trust among nations is expected to lead to a long-term restructuring of the global economic and monetary system, further supporting gold's appeal as a safe asset [15][16]. - The transition of gold from an inflation hedge to a systemic protection asset reflects a broader reassessment of global credit and sovereign security [18].