中美夹缝中，越南踩着钢丝冲刺

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam is experiencing significant economic growth, with a GDP growth rate of 7.52% in the first half of 2025, the highest in 15 years, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) and Chinese companies seeking opportunities in the region [4][5][20]. Economic Growth and Investment - Vietnam's FDI reached approximately $11.72 billion in the first half of 2025, marking an 8.1% year-on-year increase, the highest for the same period from 2021 to 2025 [4]. - The number of newly registered Chinese companies in Vietnam increased by over 30% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with expectations to exceed 1,500 by the end of the year [4][5]. Trade Dynamics - Vietnam has become a significant beneficiary of the US-China trade tensions, acting as an intermediary in trade between the two nations [5][8]. - In 2021, Vietnam's imports from China amounted to $109.9 billion, while exports to the US reached $96.29 billion, highlighting its role as a "gray transshipment" hub [5]. Structural Reforms - Vietnam is undergoing extensive administrative reforms, reducing the number of provinces and districts to enhance governance and economic efficiency, which is referred to as a "century plan" [7][8]. Consumer Market Dynamics - Vietnam's consumer market is characterized by a young population, with an average age of 32.5 years, and a significant portion of the population under 25 years old, driving consumption growth [20][21]. - The retail sales growth rate reached 11.1% in April 2025, with consumption accounting for approximately 63.16% of GDP in 2023, compared to 53.1% in China [20][21]. Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the growth, Vietnam faces challenges in maintaining economic independence while navigating its role as a middleman in global trade [31][32]. - The country is striving to enhance its manufacturing capabilities and reduce reliance on low-value assembly work, but faces competition from other emerging markets [41][44]. Localization and Market Entry - Foreign companies are required to localize their operations in Vietnam to succeed, as evidenced by regulations requiring registration for e-commerce platforms [36][39]. - Successful examples of localization include Haier's AQUA brand, which has established a comprehensive operational network in Vietnam [38][39]. Economic Structure Transition - Vietnam's economy is gradually shifting from agriculture to industry and services, with the share of the primary sector declining over the past decade [49].