集体大反弹，有期货月内涨超50%！当“反内卷的风”吹向大宗商品

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the "anti-involution" policy on supply contraction expectations in various industries, particularly focusing on coal and other commodities, which have shown significant price increases in the futures market due to anticipated production restrictions [1][7][12]. Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - Coal futures, particularly the焦煤期货主力2509 contract, surged by 11% on July 23, with a monthly increase exceeding 34% [1]. - Other commodities have also seen price increases, with多晶硅2509 rising over 50% and焦炭2509 increasing nearly 20% since July [3]. - The glass futures market has experienced a rise of approximately 20% since July, while the actual spot price of glass has only increased by about 7% [6][15]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" trend is spreading from the photovoltaic and steel industries to coal and building materials, indicating a broader market response [5]. - The current market reaction is primarily speculative, with actual spot markets not reflecting the same intensity as futures markets [6][17]. - The central government's focus on eliminating low-price competition and promoting quality improvements is expected to lead to more structured production policies [9][10]. Group 3: Future Expectations and Uncertainties - The implementation of stricter production regulations could lead to a significant reduction in coal output, with estimates suggesting a potential decrease of 43 million tons in Inner Mongolia alone [10]. - The upcoming release of new policies aimed at stabilizing growth in key industries, including steel and non-ferrous metals, is anticipated to further influence commodity prices [11][12]. - The actual impact of the "anti-involution" policies on supply and pricing remains uncertain, with market participants closely monitoring the situation [17].