【周度分析】车市扫描(2025年7月14日-7月20日)

Group 1: Overview of the Automotive Market - From July 1 to 20, 2025, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 978,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12% [1] - Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 11.88 million units, also reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [1] - For the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars were 960,000 units, up 22% year-on-year but down 12% month-on-month [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Market - Retail sales of new energy passenger cars from July 1 to 20 reached 537,000 units, a 23% year-on-year increase, with a penetration rate of 54.9% [1] - Cumulative retail sales of NEVs for the year reached 6.006 million units, showing a 32% year-on-year growth [1] - Wholesale sales of NEVs during the same period were 514,000 units, up 25% year-on-year, with a penetration rate of 53.6% [1] Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The automotive market is expected to stabilize with a strong performance in July 2025, supported by favorable economic conditions and improved exports [4] - The market is entering a consolidation phase, with traditional fuel vehicle inventories being reduced due to market pressures [4] - The "trade-in" policy is anticipated to have a stronger impact in the second half of the year, with government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [4][5] Group 4: Wholesale Sales Analysis - Daily average wholesale sales for the first three weeks of July were 39,000, 46,000, and 58,000 units respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 39%, 31%, and 8% [6] - Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 14.24 million units, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [6] - The automotive industry is increasingly driven by both domestic and international demand, with a notable improvement in industry order [6] Group 5: Commercial Vehicle Market - In June 2025, domestic commercial vehicle sales reached 260,000 units, a 17% year-on-year increase [7] - The first half of 2025 saw commercial vehicle sales of 1.52 million units, a 6% year-on-year growth [7] - The penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles reached 24% in the first half of 2025, indicating strong growth [7] Group 6: Registration and Ownership Data - By June 2025, the total number of vehicles in China reached 359 million, with new energy vehicles accounting for 10.27% of this total [8] - The first half of 2025 saw 5.622 million new energy vehicles registered, a 27.86% year-on-year increase [8] - The rapid growth in vehicle scrappage rates indicates a dynamic market environment, with a net increase of 6.5 million vehicles expected this year [8] Group 7: International Market Insights - In Russia, the automotive market saw a significant increase in Chinese brand market share, reaching 57% in June 2025 [9] - The total automotive sales in Russia for the first half of 2025 were 600,000 units, a 29% year-on-year decline [9] - Chinese exports to Russia have shown strong growth, with significant increases in market penetration for Chinese brands [9]