三个月涨超500点，沪指盘中突破3600点关口：“慢牛”行情能否持续？

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a "slow bull" trend, rising from approximately 3040 points to nearly 3600 points over the past three months, with an increase of over 500 points, leading to heightened investor expectations for a bull market [1][6]. Market Performance - On July 23, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3600-point mark for the first time since October 8, 2024 [2]. - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.01% to 3582.3 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.37% and the ChiNext Index remained unchanged. The total trading volume in A-shares was maintained at a high level, reaching 1.9 trillion yuan [3]. Sector Highlights - The "Yajiang Hydropower" concept has gained significant traction, with companies like China Power Construction, Poly United, Tibet Tianlu, and Xining Special Steel experiencing three consecutive trading limit increases. The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project, led by the newly established China Yajiang Group, has a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, making it the largest infrastructure project globally [4]. Market Outlook - The potential for a sustained "slow bull" market is under scrutiny. Liu Jipeng, former dean of the School of Business at China University of Political Science and Law, noted that the market's recent rise could face significant adjustment risks as it approaches the 3600-3700 point range, which historically has led to prolonged consolidation phases [9]. - If the market can effectively break through the 3700-3800 point range, it may enter a sustained slow bull phase. However, if it fails to surpass 3700 points, it may be premature to declare the emergence of a bull market [10]. Investment Dynamics - Incremental capital has become a key signal for market uptrends. Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. has significantly increased its holdings in various ETFs, with a total investment exceeding 190 billion yuan [12]. - Foreign investment in RMB assets has remained stable, with foreign holdings of domestic RMB bonds exceeding 600 billion USD, indicating a positive trend in foreign investment in the domestic stock market [13]. Market Sentiment - The market has shown strong performance since June, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs for the year. The current environment is characterized by a balance between fundamental pressures and policy support, leading to increased market divergence [15].