“反内卷”升温！多晶硅月涨52%，大宗商品集体上涨

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in commodity prices, particularly polysilicon, which reached a record high, driven by market expectations of reduced competition and government initiatives to eliminate outdated production capacity [1]. Group 1: Commodity Price Trends - On July 23, the main contract for polysilicon surged by 12%, peaking at 53,165 yuan, marking a new high since its listing [1]. - From early July to the present, the cumulative increase in polysilicon futures has reached 52.4%, with other commodities like coking coal (34.78%), coke (19.95%), glass (18.96%), iron ore (13.09%), and alumina (12.32%) also showing significant gains [1]. Group 2: Government Policies and Market Expectations - Recent market expectations of "anti-involution" have gained traction, with a high-level meeting in early July emphasizing the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1]. - On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, is forthcoming, aimed at restructuring and optimizing supply while phasing out outdated capacity [1]. Group 3: Future Market Outlook - According to CITIC Securities, commodity prices are expected to revert to fundamental drivers in Q3, with industrial metals and crude oil potentially weakening in the short term, while the supply-demand dynamics for coal and steel may improve [1]. - Under the theme of anti-involution, the steel market is anticipated to gain momentum, and previously oversold products like lithium and silicon may experience a rebound [1].