【乘联分会论坛】7月狭义乘用车零售预计185.0万辆，新能源预计101万辆

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in June experienced strong growth driven by the "two new" policies, with retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles reaching 2.083 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.2% and a month-on-month increase of 7.5% [1] Group 1: June Market Review - The retail sales of new energy vehicles in June reached 1.111 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 29.9% and a month-on-month growth of 8.2%, with a penetration rate rising to 53.3% [1] Group 2: July Market Outlook - The July automotive market is expected to maintain stable year-on-year growth, driven by the "trade-in and scrapping" policies, despite some demand being pulled forward due to June's sales surge [2] Group 3: Manufacturer Sales Trends - Retail targets for leading manufacturers are projected to grow by 6% year-on-year in July, with an estimated total retail market for narrow passenger vehicles around 1.85 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.2% [3] Group 4: Weekly Sales Trends - The first week of July saw a normal seasonal decline in sales, with daily retail averaging 39,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% but a month-on-month decrease of 5.8% [4] - The second week showed a recovery with daily retail reaching 47,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [4] - The third week recorded daily retail of 58,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [4] - The fourth week is expected to see daily sales of 68,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [4] - Overall, July's retail market is estimated to reach around 1.85 million units [4] Group 5: Stable Operation in July - The automotive market is experiencing a typical seasonal decline due to the early release of consumer potential from June's sales push and the summer break for manufacturers [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is working to regulate the competitive order in the new energy vehicle industry, aiming to shift from price wars to value competition focused on technology upgrades and service quality [5] - The overall market discount in early July stabilized around 25%, indicating a reduction in promotional intensity compared to late June [5] - The "trade-in and scrapping" policy continues to support market stability, although some regions face temporary pauses in subsidies due to early depletion of funds [5]