专访华泰资产王军：像重视招商引资一样重视消费

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP in the first half of the year reached 66.05 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a solid foundation for achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [1][5]. Economic Performance - The economic performance in the first half of the year exceeded external expectations, primarily due to the significant support from the manufacturing sector and a rebound in exports [1]. - Industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively [6]. - Export growth was robust, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9% in the first half, resulting in a trade surplus of 586 billion USD, a 34.7% increase compared to the previous year [6]. External Trade Dynamics - China has successfully expanded its foreign trade "circle of friends," with trade growth with over 190 countries and regions, and the number of trading partners exceeding 500 billion yuan increased by 5 [7]. - However, potential risks to exports in the second half of the year include demand exhaustion from the first half, new tariff impacts, and a downturn in external demand [8][9]. Consumer Spending and Income - The disposable income of residents increased by 5.3% in the first half, but consumer potential remains underutilized due to low risk appetite and cautious spending behavior [11]. - To stimulate consumption, it is suggested to strengthen domestic circulation, optimize consumption policies, and increase fiscal support for low-income groups and public services [12][13]. Policy Recommendations - A focus on increasing residents' income through reforms and the implementation of a "residents' income doubling" plan is recommended [14]. - The government should prioritize policies that support consumption, similar to how it emphasizes investment and project attraction [12][13]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to gradually slow in the third and fourth quarters, but the government aims to implement targeted policies to maintain a growth rate around 5% for the year [17]. - Investment dynamics are expected to be weak outside of infrastructure, with real estate investment continuing to decline [18].