突发！暂停降息

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain interest rates unchanged, awaiting clarity on Trump's tariff policies and the overall economic environment [3][6]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - On July 24, the ECB decided to keep the deposit rate at 2%, marking the first time in over a year that rates have not been cut. This decision aligns with the expectations of most analysts [3]. - The ECB has not provided guidance on future policy paths due to uncertainties surrounding tariff levels and trade negotiations [3]. Economic Context - Current inflation is at the ECB's mid-term target of 2%, and despite global challenges, the Eurozone economy shows resilience. However, external uncertainties, particularly from trade disputes, remain significant [3][7]. - The ECB's President, Christine Lagarde, indicated that the bank is well-positioned to address challenges beyond trade disputes, such as the strengthening euro and upcoming public spending increases [3]. Market Reactions - Following the ECB's announcement, there were no significant changes in the euro exchange rate or stock markets [4]. Future Expectations - Investors anticipate a cumulative rate cut of 22 basis points by the end of the year, with a potential final cut of 25 basis points expected in September [3]. - The ECB's Vice President, Luis de Guindos, warned that economic growth could be nearly zero in Q2 and Q3 due to companies preemptively purchasing to avoid higher tariffs [6]. Inflation and Economic Indicators - The euro has appreciated over 13% against the dollar this year, which could exert new pressures on inflation and suppress consumer price increases. The ECB forecasts that inflation will be below target next year [6].