“弱美元”预期强化 人民币汇率积蓄升值动能

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the RMB/USD exchange rate, highlighting the strengthening of the RMB amidst a backdrop of a weakening USD and the implications for RMB internationalization [1][6][9]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On July 24, the RMB/USD central parity rate was raised by 29 basis points to 7.1385, marking a total increase of 149 basis points since the beginning of July, reaching the highest level since November 6, 2024 [1]. - The RMB's stable performance is attributed to China's improving economic fundamentals, which continue to support the currency's appreciation potential despite fluctuations in the USD index and uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][7]. Group 2: USD Weakness and Economic Factors - The expectation of a "weak dollar" is strengthening, with the USD index falling to 97.20 as of July 23, reflecting an approximate 11% depreciation since the beginning of the year [3]. - U.S. economic data, including employment and retail figures, have shown resilience, but inflationary pressures and tariff policies are complicating the Fed's potential for rate cuts [3][4]. - The erosion of the Fed's independence and the increasing correlation between dollar assets are raising concerns about the dollar's credibility and long-term value [5]. Group 3: Domestic Support for RMB Stability - The RMB's stability is further supported by the Chinese central bank's proactive measures to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, which have been effective in stabilizing the RMB during periods of USD strength [7][8]. - Experts suggest that the RMB is relatively insulated from international financial market changes, with domestic market forces playing a crucial role in determining the exchange rate [7][8]. Group 4: Opportunities for RMB Internationalization - The weakening of the USD and increasing volatility in international financial markets present an opportunity for RMB internationalization, as global investors seek diversified asset allocations [10][11]. - There has been a net increase of $10.1 billion in foreign investment in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, indicating growing confidence in the Chinese economy and the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets [10]. - Recommendations include promoting RMB settlement in bilateral trade and enhancing the use of RMB in international transactions, particularly in commodity imports [11].