Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing negotiations between the EU and the US regarding tariffs, particularly in light of a recent trade agreement between the US and Japan, which sets a precedent for the EU's negotiations. The EU is aiming to avoid a 30% punitive tariff by agreeing to a 15% tariff on goods exported to the US, which would apply to sensitive products like automobiles [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - The EU is in high-level discussions with the US to establish a tariff framework similar to the recent US-Japan agreement, with a proposed 15% tariff on EU goods to the US [1][5]. - The EU's current average tariff on US goods is 4.8%, with an additional 10% special tariff imposed by the US since April [1]. - The EU is preparing a countermeasure list of US goods worth €93 billion, matching the proposed 30% tariff, which includes significant products like Boeing aircraft and American automobiles [6][8]. Group 2: Economic Implications - If the US implements a 30% punitive tariff, it could push the Eurozone economy towards recession, potentially reducing annual growth by up to 0.3 percentage points over the next two years [8]. - The EU's response to US tariffs is expected to be more targeted and smaller in scale compared to the US's broad tariff measures, which may lead to a more restrained reaction than the market anticipates [8][9]. - Despite the uncertainty, European stock markets are expected to maintain an upward trend in the next six months, although they may face short-term adjustments due to market sentiment and trade policy uncertainties [8][9].
最后一公里!美欧或在15%税率上达成“停火协议”
第一财经·2025-07-25 03:55