这轮反内卷，有什么不一样？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent focus on "anti-involution" in various industries, emphasizing the need to eliminate homogeneous or low-end production capacities and restore a reasonable pricing system to optimize the competitive environment and enhance innovation capabilities in foundational industries [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Current Situation - The main goal of the current "anti-involution" initiative is to address severe homogenization in competition, which has led to a collapse of the overall pricing system due to excess supply and stagnant demand growth [3][4]. - Industries affected include renewable energy, particularly solar power, automotive sectors, and traditional industries like steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum, all of which have experienced downward trends in the past two years [4][5]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is characterized by price wars driven by market share competition, resulting in deteriorating profitability for many companies, particularly in the solar and renewable energy sectors [4][10]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for traditional industries like steel and cement is closely tied to macroeconomic factors, especially real estate, which has seen a decline affecting related sectors [5][6]. - The solar industry experienced rapid growth of 40%-50% from 2021, but demand may fluctuate in the coming months due to policy changes [6]. - The supply side of these industries shows a commonality in underlying technologies and business models, leading to homogenization, although some segments are witnessing continuous technological innovation and product differentiation [6][7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current "anti-involution" measures are compared to previous supply-side reforms in 1998 and 2016, highlighting the evolution of reform strategies as the economic landscape changes [7]. - The 1998 reforms focused on state-owned enterprises, while the 2016 reforms involved both state and private enterprises, with the current adjustments primarily affecting emerging industries dominated by private players [7]. Group 4: Mechanisms of Involution and Future Outlook - The rapid expansion of homogeneous production capacities is driven by factors such as talent mobility, innovation, and capital flow, leading to significant fluctuations in profitability [9][10]. - Future competition may shift from price to product differentiation and performance, depending on the market's focus on cost versus innovation [11][12]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors like steel and solar energy, where certain companies are demonstrating resilience and competitive advantages despite the overall market challenges [16][17]. - The lithium battery supply chain is highlighted, with a distinction between the midstream battery segment, which is experiencing a bifurcation in profitability, and the upstream materials segment facing oversupply issues [16][17].