电芯最高涨价15%，储能系统跟不跟？

Core Viewpoint - The current surge in energy storage cell prices is driven by rising raw material costs and strong downstream demand, indicating a structural imbalance in supply and demand [23][24]. Price Trends - As of July 24, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 70,450 yuan/ton, marking a 17% increase from the low point on June 23 [1][2]. - Lithium carbonate futures also saw a significant rise, with prices exceeding 77,000 yuan/ton, the highest since mid-March [2]. - The average price of 280Ah energy storage cells has fluctuated, with a recent recovery to 0.3 yuan/Wh after dipping to 0.299 yuan/Wh [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The energy storage cell market is experiencing a supply shortage, with some manufacturers notifying price increases of 5-15% for new orders, reflecting the latest raw material costs [9][10]. - The price adjustments are primarily aimed at new contracts, while existing contracts remain stable, indicating a focus on maintaining contractual obligations [9][10]. - The surge in energy storage cell prices is seen as a necessary correction following a period of significant overcapacity in the market [10][12]. Policy Impact - Recent policy changes, including the revision of the Price Law, are expected to influence market dynamics and support price increases across various sectors, including energy storage [1][10]. - The ongoing "supply-side reform" is facilitating the exit of inefficient production capacities, thereby optimizing supply structures [10][12]. Future Outlook - Predictions suggest that energy storage cell prices may maintain a low level with potential for slight increases in the second half of 2025, driven by ongoing demand and cost pressures [17][18]. - The energy storage system prices are expected to follow the trends of cell prices, albeit with a lag, and will likely experience moderate increases [17][18]. - The market is anticipated to shift from a price war to a value-driven competition, emphasizing quality over low-cost strategies [19][22][24]. Competitive Landscape - Smaller system integrators may face challenges due to rising costs, while larger firms with robust supply chains and quality-focused strategies are likely to thrive [19][20]. - Companies that can innovate and maintain a complete technology chain from cell production to system integration will gain a competitive edge [20][21]. - The industry is moving towards a more rational pricing strategy, with calls for sustainable pricing mechanisms to avoid detrimental low-cost bidding practices [21][22].