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私募大佬赵军,最新发声!
中国基金报·2025-07-26 01:59

Core Viewpoint - The founder and CIO of Freshwater Spring, Zhao Jun, highlighted the "dumbbell" characteristic of market opportunities in the first half of the year, with a focus on value dividend assets and emerging growth assets [2][4]. Market Overview - Investor risk appetite has remained high since September 24 of the previous year, despite a stable overall index, indicating significant internal structural changes in the market [4]. - Macro factors such as domestic demand, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts have had a neutral and converging impact on the market, suggesting stable macro expectations [4]. - The economic situation shows that while government policies are aimed at stabilizing growth, consumer and business confidence still needs to recover [4]. Investment Strategy - Freshwater Spring has developed a top-down macro allocation framework to complement its bottom-up stock selection strategy, allowing for better adaptation to market changes [6]. - In a context of rising risk appetite and weak economic expectations, emerging growth assets are expected to perform well, with small-cap stocks showing superior performance [7]. Structural Opportunities - For the second half of the year, three structural opportunities are identified: 1. Revaluation of quality Chinese assets due to market changes and increased global allocation [9]. 2. Globalization of advantageous industries, focusing on leading companies with strong individual alpha [9]. 3. Opportunities in technology with a focus on domestic substitution in "choke point" areas and investments driven by breakthroughs in AI technology [9]. Sector Focus - The company is optimistic about three main sectors for the second half: 1. Consumer sector, focusing on new consumption trends and overseas expansion [10]. 2. Technology sector, with AI remaining a key investment theme, including overseas and domestic computing power [10]. 3. Automotive industry, emphasizing high-end, intelligent, and overseas markets, particularly in the new energy vehicle supply chain [10]. Risk Awareness - The company emphasizes the need to be cautious of potential risks, including the possibility of fundamental improvements lagging behind market optimism and external shocks [10].